White Papers

Seasonal Weather Forecasting and Satellite Image Analysis for Agricultural Supply Chain Management

This paper explains how applying the Weather Trends Forecast with Open Source data can help to identify risks to the agricultural supply chain.

Satellite Vegetation Indices and the Indian Monsoon

Read this paper to see how using the Weather Trends long range forecast can be combined with space-based technologies to assess global agricultural potential.

Extreme Weather and Society

This paper discusses the extreme weather events that affected millions of people in Russia and Pakistan during the summer of 2010. It shows how, while these were separate events in different geographic regions, they were connected through common physical processes.

The Southern Oscillation and US Dairy Production

Weather indices can be applied to project production and yield potential for commercially important agricultural commodities. This paper discusses how an analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index, and El Nino indicator, can help assess potential dairy production in the US.

Winter Snowfall Summary for North America & 2009-2010 Outlook

This paper explains how the long cold and snowy Winter of 2008-2009 had many people asking “where is global warming when you need it” as the U.S. suffered through the snowiest Winter in 13 years (snowiest since the record year of 1995-1996) and the 3rd straight snowy year in Canada. A high level North America snowfall outlook is provided for the upcoming Winter 2009-2010 season.

Identifying and Quantifying How Weather Influences Consumer Behavior

This paper explains how companies can quickly identify and quantify the influence weather has on their business. Once the relationship of weather and sales has been documented, the paper further explores creative Business Intelligence reporting strategies to raise awareness of weather’s influence on sales throughout the organization. This awareness is the first step a company needs to take as they transition from constantly reacting to weather, to proactively planning for yearly weather variance in their business.

WTI 2008 Intenational Accuracy Report

Documentation on WTI’s year-ahead forecast accuracy for the retail calendar 2008 across 31 countries. Accuracy is documented for daily year-ahead temperature forecasts, weekly year-ahead temperature forecasts, weekly year-ahead precipitation forecasts and monthly year-ahead snowfall forecasts. Overall the U.S. accuracy was 87% for temperatures and 74% for precipitation but the U.K. was overall our most accurate country with 81% accurate temperatures and 87% accurate precipitation forecasts.

Natural Gas and Weather: Employing Weather Guidance to better prepare for future price change

WTI took a look at how accurately anticipating future changes in climate can better help estimate EIA (Energy Information Administration) natural gas monthly storage and US total consumption. WTI sought out to prove that proactive weather intelligence leads to better decision making and ultimately better profitability (usually before your competitors).

Weather Risks to the Global Food Supply Chain: Australian Wheat

We all know that weather’s influence on commodity crops can be significant. This paper discusses how taking a long range view of the weather in a major agricultural origin can help assess crop potential before the news makes its way into the market.

Anticipating the Climate Black Swan

Drawing from the ideas described in Taleb’s ‘The Black Swan’, this paper applies this premise to unexpected weather events, and how to protect against the associated financial risks.

What’s the “price” of weather volatility in your portfolio?

A in depth look at a profitable weather futures and natural gas portfolio trading simulation using a proprietary WTI weather forecast.